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February 25, 2010
The U.S. Senate’s $35 billion jobs bill passed its first legislative hurdle with the support of five Republican senators. The bill, approved by a vote of 70-28, contains two major provisions. First, it would exempt businesses that hire the unemployed from the 6.2 percent Social Security payroll tax through December and give them an additional $1,000 tax credit if each new worker stays on the job a full year.
Second, it would extend highway and mass transit programs through the end of the year and pump $20 billion into them in time for the spring construction season. The money would make up for lower-than-expected gasoline tax revenue. In addition to the tax incentives, the Senate bill would extend a tax break for small businesses buying new equipment up to $250,000 and expand an initiative that helps state and local governments pay for infrastructure projects.
Supporters say that the new hiring tax credits for business could generate about 250,000 new jobs, but this would be only a fraction of the 8.4 million jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007.
However, it does not seem likely that many companies will hire more workers just to get the tax breaks. Before businesses start hiring, they need increased demand for their products, more work for employees and more income to pay those workers.
Many employers don’t mind the enormous pool of unemployed workers, since it makes it a lot easier to cut wages and benefits and boost the productivity of their employees. Even when businesses are beginning to see an increase in demand, they are hiring temporary workers whom they can discard if the demand fades.
The Obama administration expects its $787 billion stimulus package to save and create 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010. Reaching that goal would be very helpful, but it could still leave at least 11 million unemployed without work. As of this January, employment has actually dropped by 3.4 million jobs.
The Washington Post reports that the nation will add an average of 95,000 jobs a month this year, a bit below what economists say is needed just to keep up with population growth. Unemployment is expected to stay high throughout 2010 and well into the following year, even if there is a pickup in business activity.
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